Three weeks into the college football season, a few truths have become evident. Some are obvious (hey, Alabama is really good) and others shouldn't be surprising (turns out, never mind the offseason, but Johnny Manziel is better than last year). Meanwhile, on the coaching front, there's still time to turn things around, but Mack Brown is in big trouble at Texas and Lane Kiffin might be toast at USC. Add Bo Pelini to the mix, and that's plenty of intrigue with three big-time jobs, all of which could be open in a few weeks (we could argue whether Nebraska belongs on the same tier as the other two – sorry Huskers, it's a clear notch below – but it's still a premier gig).
The good news: None of this is set in stone. We're only 25 percent of the way through the regular season. Conference play is only just now about to really crank up. If the fourth weekend looks light on drama, here's a warning: That's when wacky happens. Let's hope, anyway.
Until then, here's the first installment of @USATODAYSports College Football Mailbag, where we'll try each Friday to provide answers to your burning questions –and we don't mean Big Tex – and occasionally address off-topic stuff (see below).
Tweet questions to @GeorgeSchroeder and use the hashtag #CFBmailbag – or go old school and email gschroeder@usatoday.com.
Which conference is the most exciting to watch? Also, which conference has the best chance to dethrone the SEC? – @mLuH2006
So, a minefield right from the beginning. Which conference is most exciting? Depends on (mostly regional) perspective, probably. If we're talking style of play, I might go with the Pac-12 or the Big 12, because of all the hurry-up offense being played out there and the crazy high scores. You know, stuff that would never happen in the SEC, where defense reigns supr—what? Oh, thanks Paul.
From a sheer who-knows-what-will-happen standpoint, I might go with the Big 12. It's really early, but in the first three weeks it appears Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Baylor – not necessarily in that order -- are the three best teams, and there's separation after that. But there's a reason the race was considered wide-open before the season: several decent teams, none elite. That still seems about right. Which means there's no real way to predict what'll happen from week to week.
The SEC still looks like Alabama and then LSU and Georgia, then everybody else. But any league with Johnny Football is must-see TV every week. The Pac-12 features Oregon and Stanford, but UCLA and Washington and maybe even Arizona State have been early surprises. The conference is solid and deep, and the most likely answer to your second question.
The most underperforming team may be easy (hello Mack Brown) but who is most surprising? – @OKCsportsGUY
Texas' struggles are mildly surprising. It feels like there's potential for the program tospontaneously combust at any moment.
I wasn't sure what to make of the Longhorns before the season (neither were many others; Phil Steele tabbed them as No. 4 nationally; Big 12 media had them No. 4 in the Big 12), but Brown talked them up all offseason, raising expectations for a return to the national picture. Instead, Texas is inconsistent on offense and doesn't tackle on defense. Brown fired defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, and although publicly the Texas administration keeps supporting the head coach, it's clear he's in big, big trouble. Underperforming? Absolutely. But only mildly surprising.
This could and probably will all change tomorrow – which is part of the beauty of college football season – but Texas Tech, with Kliff Kingsbury getting it done with freshmen quarterbacks, and Georgia Tech, doing it with the diamond formation, might qualify. I'll go with a couple of Pac-12 teams, though. We'll talk about UCLA in the next answer, but how about Washington?
Starting with a shellacking of Boise State – and never mind if the Broncos have slipped a notch, if you've paid attention the last few years, you know that just does not happen – followed by a nice road win over Illinois in Chicago, the Huskies have looked really good. Keith Price has emerged, finally, as a consistent playmaker at quarterback. Bishop Sankey is the best running back you don't know much about. Justin Wilcox might have a decent defense. Steve Sarkisian has the program headed on a nice trajectory. The Pac-12 schedule is rough – beginning next week, it goes: Arizona, at Stanford, Oregon, at Arizona State; by late October, the Huskies' momentum could be a memory. But they might cause some bruises, too. Pay attention to the games Oct. 5 at Stanford and especially to Oct. 12 at home against Oregon. Washington has lost nine consecutive to the Ducks, but it could be an upset trap ready to be sprung.
Never thought I'd ask this, but should Oregon be more worried about UCLA than Stanford? – @theplanetbob
Never thought I'd answer this, either, not this season. But the question makes sudden sense after UCLA's fast start. The last image we have of the Bruins is of their second-half swamping of Nebraska in Lincoln (Bo Pelini might have a few choice words to say here; anyone got a tape?). UCLA's progress under Jim Mora Jr. is impressive. Sophomore quarterback Brett Hundley is fantastic fun to watch – you want a dark horse Heisman candidate, maybe start with him. He's big (6-3, 222) and strong and mobile, a serious headache for defenses (against Nebraska, he threw for 294 yards and three touchdowns). The Bruins go fast and then faster, like so many others these days, and a shootout might be in store Oct. 26 in Eugene.
But the Pac-12's two best teams remain Stanford and Oregon. Or Oregon and Stanford. Either way – until Nov. 7, when the teams will determine the correct order. There's a long way to go until then, but the winner might be on its way to the BCS championship game. It's a great clash of styles. The last time the teams met, Stanford shut down the Ducks in Eugene. Can the Cardinal do it again, this time at home? Based on what we've seen so far, the Bruins could cause plenty of problems for Oregon. No one should overlook them. But the question was whether the Ducks should be more worried about UCLA than Stanford. Nope.
From what you observed of the Vols last weekend, do you think Butch Jones will turn it around? – @clintontennsee
There was plenty of excitement in the offseason after Jones' arrival. That's not unusual, of course, but after Derek Dooley's disastrous tenure (and Lane Kiffin's cup of coffee before Dooley), fans were hungry. Enthusiasm and optimism often gets confused for real, on-field momentum, but reality should have set in last week, when Oregon blistered the Vols. Keep two things in mind: Oregon is going to do that to almost everyone. The Ducks have settled into the No. 2 spot in the polls, and no one's really quibbling about it. They're good, and Tennessee fans shouldn't overreact to a road blowout. Also, more important is what happens now, as SEC play cranks up. Florida is a heavy favorite Saturday, and probably should be. But the Gators will be a better measuring stick for how far the Vols have to go. The key is patience. Jones has a good track record. He wasn't the Vols' first choice, but he was a very solid hire. Give him time. Tennessee looks like it's on the right track.
Why can't you do the Springfield Police Log full-time? – @mrbducks
Springfield Police Log is a labor of love. Or lunacy. Or love of lunacy. Whatever, but it's fun (for me, anyway; I don't know about anyone else). Since moving from the Pacific Northwest, I've missed the weekly dose of zany crime in a place we loved. Springfield is a great but unique mill town adjacent to Eugene and is, in fact, the inspiration for the Springfield in "The Simpsons".
The blurbs in the incident reports are sometimes sad but often funny; at some point I thought others might find them humorous, too. Here's one:
And another:
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